Sen, Sandeep and Nobis, Michael Peter and Saggere, Rani M.S. and Ramanujam, Srirama and Davis, Thomson and Nikolaus Karger, Dirk and Gudasalamani, Ravikanth and Tsuda, Yoshiaki (2025) Direct Integration of Population Genetics and Dynamic Species Distribution Modelling Improves Predictions of Post-Glacial History of Piper nigrum. Diversity and Distributions, 31: e70070.
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Abstract
Aim: Climate change has a strong impact on species ranges and the genetic structure of populations, yet conclusions are often subject to large uncertainties when both are analysed independently. Here, we develop a novel framework to directly integrate population genetics and dynamic species distribution modelling to reduce such uncertainties when reconstructing the postglacial history of black pepper. Location: Western Ghats, India. Methods: Genetic data of 243 individuals from 14 populations of wild Piper nigrum were derived from six chloroplast and five nuclear DNA simple sequence repeats (SSRs). Dynamic species distribution models (DSDMs) were applied since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 21,000 years BP) based on paleo-climatic suitability at a high resolution (1km, 100 years) and evaluated for a wide range of estimated migration rates and climate niches of the species. Population genetics and DSDMs were finally combined in a genetically informed DSDM, in which the estimated model parameters were optimised by maximising the correlation between the genetic diversity of the populations and their simulated colonisation history since the LGM.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Additional Information: | Copyright of this article belongs to the authors. Diversity and Distributions published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. |
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | black pepper, climate change, dynamic species distribution, hindcasting, phylogeography, Western Ghats |
| Subjects: | A ATREE Publications > G Journal Papers |
| Divisions: | SM Sehgal Foundation Centre for Biodiversity and Conservation > Biodiversity Monitoring and Conservation Planning |
| Depositing User: | Ms Suchithra R |
| Date Deposited: | 24 Nov 2025 05:24 |
| Last Modified: | 24 Nov 2025 05:24 |
| URI: | http://archives.atree.org/id/eprint/1085 |
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